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By the second year after doomsday the combined affects of blast, thermal radiation, and fallout will probably have resulted in some immediate, but mostly delayed, deaths accumulating to 35% of the population that were living on doomsday. Deaths that can be directly attributed to radiation and weapon related injuries will continue until five years after doomsday so that by that time 40% of the population that was living on doomsday may no longer be surviving because of the above named factors.
However, the total population surviving five years after doomsday will probably be only 20% of the number that was living on doomsday) Obviously, nearly half, or perhaps more than half, of the fatalities will be directly contributable to causes other than the bombs.
What then are these equally effective causes of post doomsday mortality? They are exposure, starvation, plagues, and anarchy. While the threat of chemical and biological warfare is not to be ignored the primary causes of these means of mortality can be looked upon as being more natural. That is to say they will just result naturally from the breakdown of the social infrastructure that we regularly depend upon for day to day survival.
The four factors that will determine survival are
On doomsday most people will be living outside of areas that will be struck in initial attacks by blast or thermal radiation. Many others will already be living in areas that will never be damaged by blast or thermal radiation. Both of these groups, if they have the knowledge of what to do, and have made the proper preparations, will very likely find themselves in the group of survivors who are living unharmed five years after doomsday when the surviving population has once again established some semblance of order and is once again multiplying and replenishing the earth.
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